Minot AFB, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS63 KBIS 061920
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
220 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers and a
  few thunderstorms today and tonight.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms (40 to 70 percent
  chance) are possible on Monday over south central and parts of
  eastern North Dakota.

- More strong to severe storms and are possible across the
  region Thursday and Thursday night.

- Temperatures will trend warmer through the middle of the week,
  but another cool down is expected to end the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The shortwave that brought showers and a few thunderstorms to
the north this morning has moved off to the east. Some low
amplitude ridging will move through quickly this afternoon but
the next wave will move in from Montana later today. This
pattern will bring low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) of
hit or miss showers and storms across western and central North
Dakota later this afternoon and tonight. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity as instability will be fairly
meager. Lows will mainly dip into the 50s tonight.

A stronger shortwave moves through on Monday, leading to
thunderstorm development along a southwest to northeast
oriented surface trough/wind shift. Across the south central and
into the James River Valley/Devils Lake Basin, we could see some
MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with deep layer
shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots. The latest CAMs have
convective initiation on this boundary by the late morning or
early afternoon and suggest storms in our area will be confined
to the far south central and southeast (40 to 70 percent chance)
before moving out to the east in the later afternoon hours.
Thus, the diurnal wave timing is not optimal for severe weather
in our area, but we could see a brief window for a few isolated
strong to severe storms before the wind shift moves out. Will
continue to advertise hail to the size of quarters and wind
gusts up to 60 mph as the main threats for now.

More substantial ridging then starts to move in on Tuesday and
Wednesday, leading to warming temperatures and some drier
conditions. Some guidance does have a weak wave moving through
the ridge Tuesday night/Wednesday but NBM precipitation chances
remain very low for now (less than 20 percent).

By Wednesday night, we transition back into southwest flow
aloft as a broad western US trough starts to approach. This
trough and an associated cold front will likely lead to some
widespread thunderstorm development on Thursday. Most guidance
suggests strong instability but with only around 25 to 35 knots
of deep layer shear overlapping. Given the magnitude of
forecast instability, at least some severe threat appears to be
reasonable. CSU Machine Learning guidance continues to highlight
this time frame and SPC did introduce a Day 5 outline over much
of the forecast area so we will hopefully get some more
specific details over the next few days.

Some showers and storms may linger on Friday given cyclonic flow
aloft, especially east, but these chances should move out for
most of the weekend.

After cooler temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the
lower 70s to the lower 80s, we warm quickly through mid-week.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s.
As we get closer, it would not be surprising to see some upper
90s and maybe even a few triple digit readings on Wednesday.
Thursday will stay hot, especially ahead of the cold front but
we should cool back into the 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Earlier showers are diminishing and starting move out into
eastern North Dakota. Additional isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon
through tomorrow morning. The best chances will generally be
overnight and tomorrow morning. That being said, these showers
and storms will be very hit or miss so the probability of one
moving directly overhead at any specific point is fairly low.
Therefore, we will heavily utilize PROB30 groups to account for
these potential impacts. Brief MVFR visibilities will be
possible under the heaviest showers and storms, along with gusty
and erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH